Trade friction will seriously affect China's steel exports in 2012

Since 2012, China's steel products have encountered more and more trade sanctions. In just over two months, China's steel products have been subjected to trade remedy investigations from three countries and regions in Mexico, the European Union and Brazil. The investigation products involved seamless steel pipes, organic coated plates and stainless steel round welded pipes. The investigation method is more inclined. Diversification involves anti-dumping, countervailing and anti-circumvention. In 2012, the global economic recovery slowed down. The European debt crisis caused the uncertainty of world economic development and the appreciation of the renminbi to affect China's steel exports. The prevalence of trade protectionism will also become an important factor restricting China's steel exports in 2012. 1. The continuous recovery of steel exports in the past two years has easily led to the rise of trade protectionism. With the rapid development of China's steel industry and the continuous growth of foreign trade, in recent years, with the massive export of China's steel, China and other countries and regions The friction in the field of steel trade is also increasing. The steel products exported by China have become the focus of allegations of trade sanctions such as anti-dumping and countervailing in other countries. According to the tracking data of the Information Research Center, since 2007, the steel industry has suffered from 46 trade remedy investigations involving steel products from 13 countries and regions including the United States and the European Union (see Figure 1 for the steel exports during the two years from 2007 to 2008). The number is huge. In 2007, it reached the record of the highest steel export record of 62.646 million tons. In 2008, it fell slightly to 59.928 million tons. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the foreign trade has slowed down and the trade protection of steel products has entered an active period. In 2008, the number of investigations on steel products in China reached 12. The export volume of steel products in 2010-2011 continued to grow and was relatively concentrated, which will inevitably lead to an increase in sanctions on trade in steel products from other countries. 2. Emerging market countries will gradually The leading force in the trade remedy investigation is mainly from the EU and the United States, but in recent years there has been a trend of spreading to emerging market countries like Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Russia. Such as the country (see Figure 2 for the reason, on the one hand, with China's steel Exports are gradually extended to countries such as emerging markets. According to customs statistics, in 2011, China’s exports to the EU and the United States accounted for only 13.7% of total exports, down 10.4% from 2007. On the other hand, with emerging markets. With the continuous rise, China's steel products have gradually become competitors of its domestic enterprises. So since 2007, the investigation of trade remedy measures initiated by emerging markets on my steel products has shown a growth trend. Taking South Korea as an example, South Korea is still China's steel exports. First destination country, but since 2009, modern steel, Posco and Dongkuk Steel have expanded their production capacity, especially for shipbuilding slabs, from the previous 7.4 million tons to 1290 at the end of 2011. 10,000 tons, the release of these new capacity will make South Korea's dependence on China's steel greatly weakened, and it is easy to cause trade friction. In January 2012, the Korea Iron and Steel Association issued a message that the three major steel companies in South Korea Posco (POSCO) , Hyundai Steel, Dongkuk Steel will harm the Korean steel industry on the low-cost offensive of Chinese and Japanese steel products Line anti-dumping investigation. 3, slow global economic growth, trade friction is inevitable upgrade 2012 global economic situation is still grim, the euro zone debt crisis still suffering, slow global economic recovery, the former World Bank and the United Nations and other agencies have lowered the global economy in 2012 Growth rate. In 2012, steel demand in developed countries is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, while developing countries and emerging market economies are under pressure from inflation and asset bubbles, and economic growth may slow further. Trade contradictions are gradually being reflected; in addition, the exchange rate of major global currencies (such as the US dollar, Australian dollar, euro, and renminbi will continue to fluctuate, and steel export enterprises are facing increasing pressure. Therefore, in a fiercely competitive environment, each Various forms of trade protectionism will reproduce active. Recently, the US government has proposed to return to manufacturing, and the US Senate passed a tariff bill to authorize the US Department of Commerce to continue to impose countervailing duties on so-called "non-market economy countries" such as China and Vietnam; this is for China's steel industry. It is said that there will undoubtedly be more sanctions for trade protection. According to customs statistics, China exported 7.12 million tons of steel in January-February 2012, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. Although it has increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, the export volume of steel products has continued to decline since the small peak in March last year. The trend has already taken shape (see Figure 3. The situation of China's steel exports in 2012 is not optimistic. Under the prospect of slowing global demand, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and trade protectionism, China's steel exports will not reach the 2011 level in 2012. It is estimated that the annual export volume of steel will remain at around 40 million tons.

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